Trump appears ready to attack Iran as U.S. strike force takes shape - The Washington Post

The Washington Post 2026-02-20 05:34 Read Original →

Summary Headline Only

The Trump administration is assembling significant military forces in the region and considering initial limited strikes against Iran, apparently aimed at forcing Tehran into a nuclear agreement. This represents a major escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions with substantial military assets now positioned for potential action. The development affects global energy markets, Middle Eastern stability, and international nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

Second-Order Effects

Near-term consequences — what happens next

**Oil price volatility and energy market disruption**: Even without strikes occurring, the credible threat will spike oil prices as markets price in risk premiums for potential disruption to Persian Gulf shipping (20% of global oil transit). This will immediately pressure inflation rates globally and force central banks to recalibrate monetary policy decisions.
**Regional military mobilization and proxy activation**: Iran's regional allies including Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Houthi forces will move to elevated alert status and may conduct preemptive attacks on U.S. assets or Israeli targets. Gulf states will activate air defense systems and request additional U.S. military guarantees, while Israel prepares for multi-front conflict scenarios.
**Fracturing of Western alliance unity**: European allies and other signatories to the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) will publicly distance themselves from unilateral U.S. military action, creating diplomatic rifts. This will complicate NATO coordination and embolden China and Russia to position themselves as alternative security partners for Middle Eastern nations seeking to hedge against U.S. unpredictability.

Third-Order Effects

Deeper ripple effects — longer-term consequences

**Acceleration of Middle Eastern nuclear proliferation cascade**: If military strikes fail to produce a durable agreement, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey will fast-track their own nuclear programs, concluding that only nuclear capability guarantees sovereignty. This fundamentally undermines the global non-proliferation regime and creates a multipolar nuclear Middle East within a decade.
**Restructuring of global energy architecture**: Sustained Iran crisis will permanently accelerate the diversification away from Middle Eastern oil dependency, channeling massive investment into renewable energy, LNG infrastructure, and alternative suppliers. Persian Gulf states will face structural economic decline as their energy leverage diminishes, forcing rapid and potentially destabilizing economic transformations.
**Redefinition of U.S. military doctrine toward preventive strikes**: Success or failure of limited strikes to coerce nuclear compliance will establish precedent for future U.S. administrations dealing with North Korea, potentially Myanmar, or other emerging nuclear states. This shifts international norms from deterrence-based security to acceptance of preventive military action, fundamentally altering great power competition dynamics and increasing miscalculation risks in future crises.